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RBA's Debelle, NAB business confidence eyed - Westpac

FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the main events for the day ahead, highlighting both RBA's Debelle speech and NAB business confidence in Australia.

Key Quotes

"RBA’s Debelle speaks at a Sydney conference from 9:35am Syd/6:35am Sing/HK, followed by RBNZ’s Spencer 45 minutes later. At 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK we see the Sep survey of Australian business confidence from NAB. This survey improved in late 2013 around the federal election and has held most of these gains, in contrast to consumer sentiment (Oct data due tomorrow). In Aug the conditions index was +4, about in line with the 20 year average but up from -8 in Aug 2013. The confidence index was +8 in Aug, versus a 20 year average of +6."

"At 11am Syd/8am local we see both the MAS semi-annual policy review and the advance reading on Singapore’s Q3 GDP. We agree with market consensus for no change in policy, which on our estimate means 2% annual appreciation in SGD NEER within a +/-2% band. Any surprise seems more likely to the dovish side, with inflation below 1% in Aug. Consensus on GDP is for a small gain (0.8% SAAR, 0.2% q/q), 2.7% y/y, barely up on Q2’s 2.4% y/y. There is plenty of scope for surprise on GDP."

"In Germany we will see the Oct ZEW survey of investor sentiment. The current situation index rose as high as 67.7 in June but fell to 25 in Sep and is expected to extend its fall to 15 in Oct. Probably more important is the expectations index, which has tumbled from above 60 in Jan to 7 in Sep. Consensus is 0 but Westpac looks for -7. The US data calendar is limited to the Sep NFIB small business survey."

AUD/USD consolidating with a weak tone

AUD/USD is trading at 0.8761, down -0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8775 and low at 0.8757.
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RBA's Debelle: Aussie still high vs fundamentals

Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) at the RBA, is speaking at Citi’s 6th Annual Australian and New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney, noting that Australian dollar still high vs fundamentals, Reuters reports.
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