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Slight improvement in Canadian employment levels seen today - ING

FXStreet (Łódź) - James Knightley from ING suggests that Canadian employment should rise slightly in September, but not enough to affect the unemployment rate.

Key quotes

"What surprised forecasters last month was the fall in employment (-11k)."

"Later today consensus foresees a slight improvement in employment levels (+20k) but no change significant enough to affect the unemployment rate, which we tend to agree with."

"Overall the labour data out later today is expected to show a weakly positive outcome and therefore should not have a large impact on the October rate decision due to the lack of a sustained recovery in the wider economy."
"It is likely that the first rate rise for the Bank of Canada will come after the US given the stronger performance of US lead indicators."

"While we expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates in 3Q15, it is worth keeping one eye on inflationary trends as crude oil prices have dropped away and this might increase the chance of inflation missing its target next year, which could delay rate hikes. Given the dollar divergence, we look for USD/CAD to be at 1.15 at the end of 2Q15."

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