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Enormous uncertainty around today's Aus jobs - ANZ

FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ has revised its forecast for today's Australian jobs data, now estimating employment up by 35k in September, although they remind clients of the enormous degree of uncertainty around this month’s forecast.

Key Quotes

"We have revised our forecasts for today's September labour force report after a statement from the ABS flagged material revisions to recent months’ data and a stop-gap methodology that will impact September’s print."

"The ABS advises that it now believes there to be no discernible seasonal pattern in the labour force figures this year for the months of July, August and September. This means the previous seasonally adjusted numbers will be revised to be exactly the same as the original numbers, which have been much smoother over the past two months. Assuming no revisions to the non-seasonally adjusted data, the ABS looks set to revise employment to +32k in August (from +121k) and +4k in July (instead of -4k) and the unemployment rate to 6.0% in both July and August (from 6.4% and 6.1% respectively)."

"Given this new information, we now estimate employment rose 35k in September, which would imply year-ended growth of 1.7% y/y. We forecast the participation rate to have printed at 64.8% and the unemployment rate at 5.9%."

"While there is an enormous degree of uncertainty around this month’s forecast, our forecast outcome would be consistent with broader indications of the labour market, including job ads, capacity utilisation and measured profitability."

Markets no longer expecting a big drop in Aus jobs - Westpac

Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, notes that markets are no longer expecting a big headline drop in today's Australian jobs report, given the ABS announcement yesterday, but a moderate gain.
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