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NZ business confidence still solid, economy moderating - ANZ

FXStreet (Bali) - Cameron Bagrie, Chief Economist at ANZ, notes that today's NZIER survey of business opinions, which came at 19% in Q3 vs 32% in Q2, is still a solid reading overall, but a collective picture of an economy moderating.

Key Quotes

"Still pretty solid results overall, but a collective picture of an economy moderating – i.e. gallop to a canter stuff. We now look to be tracking very close to potential growth-wise – most indicators at or just above trend."

"The fabled soft landing beckons. We appear to have an economy that's easing from 1% quarterly GDP growth to something around 0.7 to 0.8%. Capacity pressures have waned slightly, but still some undercurrent of pricing pressure to watch cost-wise (though intent here has not flowed into reality)."

"Overall impression is one of few surprises. Probably a tad weaker than we would have expected all up, but pretty trivial really; solidity across the survey though a few mixed signals noted. We partly put mixed signals down to the economy transitioning into an expansion (more moderate growth), which is distinct from recovery (recoil from lows)."

"All looks consistent with the RBNZ standing pat for quite a while. Demand side of the economy looking very close to trend. Pricing gauges still look to be overestimating inflation pressures and we need to remain watchful here."

RBA to remain neutral, AUD viewed as high - Nomura

Charles St-Arnaud, Senior Economist at Nomura, notes that today's RBA policy decision will remain neutral, adding that a weaker AUD will be welcomed, but likely still viewed as high by policy makers.
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