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NFP: A 215K gain expected - RBS

FXStreet (Bali) - RBS forecasts September NFP to rebound after a softer-than-expected 142K rise in August, expecting a 215K gain in headline payrolls.

Key Quotes

"US NFP is the main event tomorrow. We forecast September NFP will rebound after a softer-than-expected 142K rise in August. Our house view is for a 215K gain in headline payrolls, consistent with the underlying trend prior to the August disappointment. Private payrolls may advance 210K, and we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.1%. Our strategists also point out in their preview that the August NFP has been revised up in 12 of the past 14 Septembers by an average of 43K."

"Divergent monetary policy expectations after more hawkish FOMC "dot point" projections boosted the USD broadly in September. Expected divergence in monetary policy is driven chiefly by outperformance in US growth, most notably vs. the Euro-area and China where momentum has slowed. We also see a broader, thematic shift away from USD as a global funding currency. USD gains look poised to resume on payroll strength. We anticipate that declines in the USD, should the data come in weaker than anticipated, will be opportunities to position for an extension of USD gains. Only on significant weakness would we expect USD weakness, whereby the current trend in US as a growth outperformer amid a global slowdown comes under challenge. Our USD Playbook includes a scenario analysis of our preferred trades through tomorrow's NFP."

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