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EUR/NOK potential downside in the short term – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Thomas Harr, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the Nordic cross could slide to lower levels against the backdrop of divergent monetary policies.

Key Quotes

“We continue to expect Norwegian growth to hold up well, around trend growth in 2015”.

“At the Norges Bank (NB) meeting on 18 September, we expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged. In addition, it is likely to raise the interest rate path marginally in the short term, and down from 2016 onwards”.

“We forecast EUR/NOK will fall over the coming three months on Norwegian growth outperformance and higher interest rates relative to the euro zone”.

“The near-term risk is that NB is more dovish than expected”.

“Medium term, the risk is that falling oil investments in 2015 will have a larger impact on Norwegian growth than we anticipate. As such, the risks for our EUR/NOK forecasts are skewed to the upside”.

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