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Sep 17, 2014
Recent polls suggest Scottish 'no' campaign still ahead - Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank analyzes opinion polls on the Scottish independence referendum released on Tuesday, pointing out that they all show a marginal lead of the "no" campaign.
Key quotes
"The latest ICM poll for the Scotsman with a sample size of over 1000 showed that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes stood at 48% and 52% respectively although the ‘Yes’ votes had gained a 3pt lead since the same poll was conducted in August."
"Both the Opinium poll for the Daily Telegraph and the Survation Poll for the Scottish Daily Mail also showed similar results (ie ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes at 48% and 52% respectively) with the ‘Yes’ percentages up by 1 percentage point since their last survey."
"The polls showed that a range of 8-14% of voters were still undecided before polls open at 6am GMT (7am BST) tomorrow."
"So the 'Nos' are edging ahead but its fair to say that there is much uncertainty still at to how people will vote once they get to the ballot box"
"My reading of the situation is that the No campaign has been enhanced in the last week by increasing noises from big business that jobs and prices might be negatively impacted by a 'Yes'."
"This harder hitting message might persuade some to vote with their wallet rather than with their heart. Anyway we'll see over the next 48 hours was the result shows."
Key quotes
"The latest ICM poll for the Scotsman with a sample size of over 1000 showed that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes stood at 48% and 52% respectively although the ‘Yes’ votes had gained a 3pt lead since the same poll was conducted in August."
"Both the Opinium poll for the Daily Telegraph and the Survation Poll for the Scottish Daily Mail also showed similar results (ie ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes at 48% and 52% respectively) with the ‘Yes’ percentages up by 1 percentage point since their last survey."
"The polls showed that a range of 8-14% of voters were still undecided before polls open at 6am GMT (7am BST) tomorrow."
"So the 'Nos' are edging ahead but its fair to say that there is much uncertainty still at to how people will vote once they get to the ballot box"
"My reading of the situation is that the No campaign has been enhanced in the last week by increasing noises from big business that jobs and prices might be negatively impacted by a 'Yes'."
"This harder hitting message might persuade some to vote with their wallet rather than with their heart. Anyway we'll see over the next 48 hours was the result shows."