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Sep 15, 2014
US Industrial Production numbers don't come across as reliable - ING
FXStreet (Łódź) - Rob Carnell from ING comments on the inconsistencies in US Industrial Production numbers, which showed a 0.1% decline in August, with a 0.4%mom drop in manufacturing in particular.
Key quotes
"The readings are at complete odds with survey evidence and almost certainly an aberration that either reflects payback from the 0.7%mom manufacturing gain in July, poor seasonal adjustment (seasonal auto shutdowns in July may be being over-adjusted in July and weighing on the August numbers), statistical noise, or a bit of all of the above."
"With the manufacturing ISM consistent with GDP growth of close to 5.0%, today’s figures simply don’t come across as reliable."
"Ex-vehicle production was 0.3%mom, which seems a more sensible description of the underlying growth rate for production."
"And much like the latest payrolls report, this data will be mostly ignored by analysts and the investment community."
"Indeed, we suspect that more credence will be given to strong data flow, such as the recent retail sales numbers, and we do not expect that the Fed will be unduly influenced by this data in advance of /Wednesday night’s decision, and possible statement change."
Key quotes
"The readings are at complete odds with survey evidence and almost certainly an aberration that either reflects payback from the 0.7%mom manufacturing gain in July, poor seasonal adjustment (seasonal auto shutdowns in July may be being over-adjusted in July and weighing on the August numbers), statistical noise, or a bit of all of the above."
"With the manufacturing ISM consistent with GDP growth of close to 5.0%, today’s figures simply don’t come across as reliable."
"Ex-vehicle production was 0.3%mom, which seems a more sensible description of the underlying growth rate for production."
"And much like the latest payrolls report, this data will be mostly ignored by analysts and the investment community."
"Indeed, we suspect that more credence will be given to strong data flow, such as the recent retail sales numbers, and we do not expect that the Fed will be unduly influenced by this data in advance of /Wednesday night’s decision, and possible statement change."