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Scottish independence vote too close to call - Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank observes that even though the four opinion polls published over the weekend pointed to the advantage of the "no" campaign, it is still too close to call.

Key quotes

"Indeed only the ICM online poll for The Sunday Telegraph showed the ‘Yes’ vote ahead (54% vs 46%)."

"This does though mark the second poll that puts the Yes campaign ahead after the YouGov poll last week."

"However the smaller sample size of this online ICM poll of (705 respondents) and the fact that it was conducted during the same period as a telephone poll by ICM for the Guardian, which showed a 2pt lead for the ‘No’ campaign, probably means we should read the online poll with extra caution."

"The other 3 polls were in favour of the ‘No’ campaign. The Survation poll, the Opinium poll for The Observer and the Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times showed the ‘No’ votes leading the ‘Yes’ votes by a margin of 8ppts, 6ppts, 2ppts, respectively."

"So all to play for still but as for the actual logistics of the vote, polling booths will open at 7am UKT on Thursday and continues to 10pm, with results declared on a district by district basis in early hours of the following morning."

"Our base case here at DB remains of a No vote however a high turnout, participation of 16-17 year olds in the referendum and the closeness of the current polls all inject an additional degree of uncertainty to the final outcome."

"The Scottish result as well as the EU, business and market reactions could have relevant repercussions for Catalonia."

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