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Non-commercial accounts sold $3.9bn of USD longs - Nomura

FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura reviews the latest changes in CFTC futures positioning, noting that for the week ended September 9, non-commercial accounts sold $3.9bn of USD longs.

Key Quotes

"For the week ended September 9, non-commercial accounts sold $3.9bn of USD longs. This was quite unexpected, as based on our estimates using daily market variables, we would have expected longs to have increased significantly. GBP net longs also increased during the weak, quite the opposite of what might have been expected given the price action and general market sentiment surrounding the Scottish Referendum."

"Non-commercial accounts sold $3.9bn of USD as of Tuesday. This brought positioning down from the highs of last week to $32.1bn. This is quite an unexpected turn, as market data has suggested USD positioning increased dramatically. According to our estimates, USD net longs increased to $34.9bn by Friday‟s close."

"Specs bought $1.1bn of EUR in the week ended September 9. This is again surprising, because market data indicated positions were accumulating the other way, especially around the ECB announcement. Our real-time indicator suggests EUR was sold by $0.7bn since Tuesday and net shorts are currently at -$26.1bn."

"Non-commercial accounts bought $1.7bn of GBP during the week ended Tuesday, and another estimated $1.5bn since. This accumulation of net longs occurred despite the uncertainty around the Scottish Referendum. Net longs as of Tuesday were $2.7bn and are estimated at $4.2bn currently."

"JPY shorts were cut by $2.1bn in the week ended Tuesday, although we estimate $2.2bn of shorts were added since, negating the previous buying. We estimate positioning is now -$14.0bn. As with most other currencies this week, the official positioning data is counterintuitive to the direction the market has taken."

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