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Scotland remains key for GBP in the short term – BTMU

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at BTMU, underlined the importance of the events in Scotland in shaping the near term future of the pound.

Key Quotes

“There has been no further polls released to give the pound added volatility but today will be another key day with the three leaders of the main parties all heading to Scotland to try and lift the “Better Together” campaign”.

“PM David Cameron, Deputy PM Nick Clegg and Labour leader Ed Miliband have played low key roles to date and given the unpopularity of the Conservative Party in Scotland, one assumes PM Cameron’s day in Scotland will be relatively low key again”.

“Ed Miliband perhaps has the greatest potential to influence thinking given the recent shift to the Yes campaign has been by Labour voters”.

BOE Governor Mark Carney is testifying to parliament today on the QIR and monetary policy and will no doubt be asked about Scotland again”.

“He stated yesterday, quite logically we think, that formal currency union and independence are incompatible given the necessary loss of sovereignty required for currency union to work”.

“The pound’s TWI is still only 3% off its year-to-date peak, so the UK break-up risk is still only marginally priced, so we see little upside for the pound for now”.

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