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Forex Flash: US CPI to fall 0.3% MoM and to slow to 1.2% YoY in April - RBS

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the April consumer price index on Thursday April 16 at 12:30 GMT (8:30 EST). Market expects a 0.2% monthly decline and a slowdown to 1.5% YoY on April. However, RBS' analyst team sees a deeper decline of 0.3% in prices between March and April.

"The headline CPI could have fallen in April by 0.3%, due almost exclusively to a steep drop in gasoline prices," the RBS team commented in a recent report. "If our forecast proves correct, then the year-over-year headline CPI inflation rate may have slowed in April from 1.5% to just 1.2%."

RBS expects "the figure will hold that level in May as well, before rebounding this summer." Meanwhile, "the core CPI may have remained steady at 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in April."

However, "though there is some risk it could have eased to 1.8%," concludes the bank.

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