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The day ahead with key events unveiled - Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank note the key events coming up.

Key Quotes:

“Welcome to the ‘new normal’: please keep your rates inside the vehicle at all times. The first pit-stop today is Aussie trade data. Consensus is -AUD1.8bn, little changed from June. There are also retail sales (yes, folks, we will be stopping at the gift shop on the way back) expected +0.4% MoM, around +5.7% YoY, so a decent performance. (Though with the ‘housing ATM’ still working, why not spend?)”.

“Next will be German factory orders. This isn’t the most scenic of locations for visitors to the financial markets, but look for a brisk +1.5% MoM rise after a surprise slump last month. If we don’t see that, expect worries over the Eurozone outlook to intensify further. Now moving along...”

“...we see the BOE and ECB. There is no expectation of the BOE doing anything today, and we will have to wait to find out the vote split, so please don’t take photos or ask it any questions. All focus is on the ECB. Our Euro team is calling for a small rate cut today to take the refi rate towards zero and the deposit rate further below. However, Draghi may just offer a furrowed brow to the press instead”.

“After that it is time for the magical mystery tour of ADP employment, which has managed to get payrolls almost exactly right recently (for once). Expectations are for another strong reading of 223K, but that will not tell us any more about the underlying dynamics of the US labour market. Are we about to see wage growth accelerate, or are they on the ‘road to nowhere’?”

“As you look out of the left side of the Daily, the other upcoming highlight of the day will be the policy decision from the BOJ (who seem to be managing the trick of both going round in circles and heading up a blind alley simultaneously). Please enjoy the ride today and keep your seatbelt fastened at all times (....and see you at the end of the month!)”.

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