BETTER NON-FARM PAYROLLS IN THE US SUPPORTED THE GREENBACK
The US dollar strengthened against most major currencies following the labor market statistics were published. Non-farm payrolls increased by 222,000 in June compared to expected 179,000. However, other jobs data, the unemployment rate, showed an increase of 4.4%, which is 0.1% worse than in April. Average hourly earnings in June grew by 0.2% failing to meet expectations of 0.3%. Strong figures in the labor market report strengthen further monetary policy tightening in the US during this year and that, in turn, will support the bears of the EUR/USD.
Canada also released data on unemployment which saw a decrease in June to 6.5% from May’s figure of 6.6% and the number of employed expanded by 45,300 thousand which is much more than the predicted 11,400. This fact, together with a slight rebound in crude oil prices, resulted in a stronger Canadian dollar. Crude oil quotes are showing a high level of volatility and it is likely to remain today due to the report from oil service company Baker Hughes on the active rigs count expected later today.
British investors were disappointed by weak industrial production in the country, which reduced in May by 0.1% - experts predicted expansion by 0.4%. Light macro statistics together with the Brexit will put the pressure on the pound. Construction output also fell by 1.2% after the 1.1% fall in April and goods trade balance deficit in May was 11.9 billion pounds against the forecasted 10.8 billion pounds.
The EUR/USD after some consolidation has shown a spike of volatility and is currently falling. For quotes to increase further they will need to overcome resistance at 1.1450 and in this situation, the immediate goals are going to be located at 1.1500 and 1.1620. Recently the price intersected with the SMA100 on the 15-minute chart and that may be a stimulus for the price to drop to 1.1350 and 1.1300.
After the end of consolidation for the GBP/USD above 1.2950, the fall has resumed. As a result, quotes broke through the nearest low that may be considered as a signal to sell with the stop above 1.3030 and targets at 1.2800 and 1.2635. A Strong dollar and disappointing macro data in the UK will restrain a possible rebound in the near future.
Positive statistics on unemployment in Canada resulted in the appreciation of its national currency and offset the greenback’s growth against most other currencies. After fixing below the psychologically important level at 1.3000, the next targets will be at 1.2800 and 1.2665. On the other hand, there is a possibility of rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel that can potentially lead to return up to 1.3000.
Crude oil continues to move within the descending channel and volatility remains high. The growth of oil production in Libya and Nigeria continues to pull the price down. Upside potential is possible to the upper limit of the descending channel and resistance at 45.50. Within the current local trend, the quotes may decline to 43.00 and 42.25.