Crude falls as Libya restarts its biggest oil field
US futures rose slightly as the market continued to focus on US stimulus and corporate earnings that will kick-off tomorrow. Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 index rose by more than 1.45% while those tied to the S&P 500 rose by 0.45%. Regarding stimulus, there are concerns about whether the US government will pass fresh funding to support companies and households. This is after bipartisan disapproval of Donald Trump’s new offer of $1.8 trillion. The futures are also waiting for important earnings that will start tomorrow. Among the firms to watch this week will be Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, among others.
The Swiss franc is little changed today as the market reacted to the latest economic forecasts by the Swiss government. In a report earlier today, the government said that it expects the economy to weaken by 3.8%, an upward revision from the previous estimate of a 6.2% decline. It also expects the economy to bounce back by 3.8% in 2021. Still, the government expects that inflation will remain below 0% in 2020 and in 2021.
The price of crude oil declined by more than 1% as investors continued to worry about supply and demand. In recent reports, analysts at EIA and the International Energy Agency have warned that demand will remain low as the Covid-19 pandemic continues. Indeed, data from several countries, including the United States showed that the number of infections is continuing. As demand is falling, supply is increasing. Today, the Libyan government restarted its biggest oil field, two weeks after it reached an agreement with a rebel leader. This will see more than 300k barrels of oil added to global supplies every day.
The EUR/USD pair erased earlier gains on the back of a relatively stronger dollar. The pair fell to a low of 1.1786 from the intraday high of 1.1831. On the hourly chart, the price is below the 15-day and 28-day moving averages. It is also slightly above the ascending trendline shown in pink. At the same time, the signal and main lines of the MACD have started falling. Therefore, the price may continue falling as bears aim for the next support at 1.1700.
The XAU/USD pair also erased earlier gains when it reached an intraday high of 1935, which is along the upper side of the ascending channel. The price has also moved above the short and medium-term moving averages while the upward movement of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased. Also, the Average True Range (ATR), which is a good measure of volatility is still under pressure. Therefore, a break above the resistance at 1935 will see the price continue rising.
The GBP/USD pair is little changed today as investors wait for the next developments on Brexit. The pair is trading at 1.3032, which is the highest level since September 10. It is also slightly above the 25-day moving average and is along the upper side of the Donchian channels. The RSI is also moving in an upward trend. Therefore, the pair is likely to continue rising as bulls aim for the next resistance at 1.3100.