POSITIVE DATA FROM GERMANY SUPPORTS THE EURO
Trader activity remains low today due to the holiday in the US and considerable attention given to Black Friday sales. Positive news for the single currency came from the report on the German business climate from Ifo, according to which, the indicator grew in November to 117.5 compared to 116.6 forecasted and 116.8 in October. Investors have mostly ignored the political crisis in Germany arising out of a failure for a coalition government to be formed following the parliamentary elections.
By the end of today’s trading session, we may see profit taking on the EUR/USD ahead of the weekend and because of lower trading volumes on the market.
The price of the American crude oil benchmark WTI keeps rising today in anticipation of the OPEC meeting in Vienna where other major oil producers like Russia will also participate. The market is waiting for confirmation on the current agreement to restrain oil production growth after the upcoming meeting on 30 November. We may see profit taking because of the “sell on facts” rule.
The NZD/USD price is rising today amid the falling greenback and positive news on the New Zealand trade balance. The trade deficit in October was 871 million against the 750 million expected and 1156 million in September, but the volumes of exports and imports increased to 4.56 billion and 5.43 billion respectively, which points to a rise in economic activity.
The EUR/USD price keeps rising today and is currently approaching the next resistance level at 1.1925. Breaking through this level will open the way for further growth up to 1.2000. The RSI on the 15-minute chart is in the overbought territory which is a signal that the bears might rear up by the end of today’s trading session. In this case the quotes may return to 1.1825.
The USD/WTI maintains a positive impulse and is currently moving along the upper limit of the rising channel. In case of further growth, next targets will be at 60.00 and 62.00. We should note that now there is a chance of the price to pullback because of fixing of positions before the weekend and after a confident rally of the previous days. In this situation, quotes may return to the lower limit of the descending channel and the support at 57.00.
The NZD/USD has not reached the lower limit of the rising channel. Recently the MACD signal line has crossed the zero point which is the basis for continued price growth to 0.69 and 0.6950. On the other hand, we do not exclude a fall resuming with the immediate objective at 0.6825.