THE EURO KEEPS FALLING AGAINST THE US DOLLAR
The EUR/USD price continued its downward trajectory over growing concerns that the European Central Bank’s decision to extend the asset purchasing programme into next year will negatively impact the euro. The bears received further justification from the German industrial production which fell 1.6% for September, missing the expected drop of only 0.7%. ECB President Mario Draghi's speech didn’t make much impact on the market today though some positive data did come in from the retail sales report with grew by 0.7% in September, 0.1% over the forecast. The focus for the rest of the day will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at 19:30 GMT.
The AUD/USD is falling today despite the anticipated decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates at the historically low level 1.50%. According to the central bank, the pace of annual economic growth rate within the next few years will remain near 3%. At the same time, consumer inflation is likely to be below 2.0% due to the slow increase in labour costs. Traders are waiting for the release of the trade balance in China at 02:00 GMT tomorrow. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, this is a particularly sensitive indicator for the aussie dollar.
The USD/JPY resumed positive dynamics after the end of the recent price correction. Traders ignored positive statistics on the average cash earnings in Japan which increased by 0.9% on an annualised basis, which was 0.3% better than expected. Those trading the gopher will be keeping an eye on the release of the Japanese leading index for September which is due to be published at 00:00 GMT.
The single currency continued the descending movement after some consolidation under 1.1620. Recently the RSI on the 15-minute chart touched the oversold zone, which points to a possible price correction after the recent powerful movement. On the other side, the chance of further falls, with immediate objectives at 1.1550 and 1.1500, is high.
The aussie quotes crossed the SMA100 on the 15-minute chart and may soon reach strong support at 0.7635. Breaking through this may become a trigger for the drop to accelerate to 0.7600 and 0.7500. Within the rising correction, quotes may return to 0.7700, and overcoming this mark may result in the trend change to positive.
The USD/JPY price crossed the 114.00 mark but was not able to hit the local high near 114.70. In case of gaining a foothold above this level, we are likely to see further price increases up to 115.50 and 117.00. The RSI on the 15-minute chart has stepped back from the overbought territory and after testing 114.00 we may see growth resume.