FINANCIAL MARKETS LOOK TO GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI'S AND KEY U.S JOBS DATA
NEW MONTH AND NEW FISCAL QUARTER
The week ahead marks the beginning of a trading new month and fiscal quarter for financial markets, with United States financial markets briefly closed on Monday and Tuesday, as the U.S celebrates Independence day, on the 3rd and 4th July.
The month of July get's underway with a jammed packed economic calendar, featuring global PMI manufacturing data from Japan, China, Europe and the U.S.
The release of the FOMC minutes, and the U.S Nonfarm June jobs report headline the action later this trading week.
Monday, July 3rd, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI index for June is expected to show an increase in U.S manufacturing activity from the previous month, with a forecasted figure of 55.2 for June, marginally above the May figure of 54.9.
On the same day, we also see the release of June manufacturing PMI's from the Chinese, German and UK economies. The Chinese manufacturing PMI is expected to show a below 50 reading, which indicates contraction in the sector.
Tuesday, July 4th, RBA Interest Rate Decision And Policy Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia board members are expected to find a consensus that the current base interest rate remains appropriate, at 1.50%.
The policy statement will be closely watched by financial markets, it is expected that the RBA will acknowledge recent improvements in the local jobs, market and improving business conditions. The statement is also expected to mention the recent shift in rhetoric from other central banks, who are moving to more hawkish policy stances.
Wednesday, July 5th, FOMC Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes are a released to financial markets on Wednesday and will show a detailed record of the committee's policy-setting meeting held in June.
The minutes will offer a detailed insight into the current thinking behind FOMC's stance on monetary policy, with traders carefully reading through the release for clues regarding the FOMC's thought's on lagging U.S inflation and the outcome of future interest rate decisions.
Thursday, July 6th, ADP Employment Report
The ADP National Employment Report is expected to show 187,000 jobs were created in the United States economy for the month of June.
The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government's nonfarm payroll report. Change in this indicator from Friday's NFP jobs report, can at times be very volatile.
Friday, July 7th, U.S Nonfarm Payrolls And Unemployment Rate
The June U.S Nonfarm payrolls jobs report is expected to show 180,000 jobs were created in the U.S economy, exceeding the previous month's figure of 138,000. The Nonfarm payrolls report is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity in the U.S.
The unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month, is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.