Bonds and US jobs set to be a major focus for markets this week
During the upcoming trading week, the release of the February US Non-farm payrolls job report and key interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia headlines the economic docket. The US jobs report is expected to show a solid improvement from the previous month's number, with a forecast of a 148,000 headline number. The RBA is widely tipped to leave interest rates and monetary policy unchanged this week.
Traders and investors also look to PMI Manufacturing data from the eurozone economy and PMI Services data from the United Kingdom economy. The moves in the United States bond market is also expected to be a major focus for traders this week, given the recent rise and volatility in bond yields.
Monday 1st March, ISM Manufacturing Survey
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing shows business conditions in the United States manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing survey is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A monthly ISM figure above 50 is seen as positive for the US dollar currency, whereas a below 50 reading is seen as negative for the US dollar currency.
- The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2130 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2180 and 1.2230 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair trades below the 1.2130 level, sellers may test towards the 1.2060 and 1.1960 levels.
Tuesday 2nd March, RBA Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision is the market interest rate on overnight funds, with the RBA standing as the central monetary authority for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at this meeting and talk down the Australian dollar currency. RBA policymakers are also tipped to strike an overall dovish tone towards the economy and monetary policy.
- The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7860 level, key support is found at the 0.7660 and 0.7500 levels.
- If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7860 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7930 and 0.8000 levels.
Wednesday 3rd March, ADP Private Sector Report
The ADP private-sector jobs report is released by Automatic Data Processing Inc and measures the change in the number of employed people in the private sector of the United States economy. A rise of this figure stimulates economic growth and is usually seen as being bullish for the US dollar currency. A weaker-than-expected number may cause traders to sell the IS dollar currency.
- The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9000 level, further downside towards the 0.8900 and 0.8840 support levels seems possible.
- If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9000 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 0.9200 and 0.9380 resistance levels.
Thursday 4th March, US Continuing Jobless Claims
US Continuing Jobless Claims is released by the United States Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labour market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Traders are likely to pay attention to this release, following last weeks a large increase in jobless claims.
- The USDCAD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2760 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3000 and 1.3140 levels.
- If the USDCAD pair trades below the 1.2760 level, sellers may test towards the 1.2500 and 1.2340 levels.
Friday 5th March, US Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report
The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. The Non-farm payrolls job report is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.
- The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3860 level, further losses towards the 1.3660 and 1.3560 levels remains possible.
- If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3860 level, buyers are likely to test the 1.3970 and 1.4080 resistance levels.