Euro traders await the latest ECB interest rate decision

ECB time

During the upcoming trading week, traders and investors look to the European Central Bank rate decision and press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi for guidance. The ECB is unlikely to cut interest and increase monthly QE purchases at the October meeting. Market participants also will be keen to learn if the Governing Council has turned more dovish or hawkish since the September ECB meeting. This is President Draghi’s last ECB meeting before Christine Lagarde is appointed ECB President on November 1st.

Aside from the ECB decision, we see the release of October PMI manufacturing data from the eurozone economy and a raft of economic data from the German economy. The US economy also releases important Durable Goods Order data and monthly Consumer Confidence figures later this week. 

Monday 21st October, German Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland and is a key index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing. Changes in German Producer Prices are an indicator of commodity inflation, German PPI excludes volatile items, such as energy components and seasonal food, in order to provide a more accurate picture of price developments.

• The EURGBP pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.8810 level, key resistance is found at the 0.8880 and 0.8940 levels.
• If the EURGBP pair moves below the 0.8810 level, sellers may test towards the 0.8600  and 0.8540 levels.

Tuesday 22nd October, Canadian Retail Sales

Canadian Retail Sales are released by Statistics Canada and measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. The headline figure represents a measure of consumption and consumer confidence. Retail sales are considered an important leading indicator for the Canada economy and can influence future central bank policy decisions.

• The USDCAD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3155 level, key support is found at the 1.3070 and 1.2990 levels.
• If the USDCAD pair moves above the 1.3155 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3220 and 1.3260 levels.

Wednesday 23rd October, EU Consumer Confidence

Eurozone Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity inside eurozone nations. The reading is taken from a survey of about 2,300 consumers in the eurozone, which asks respondents to evaluate future economic prospects. This indicator focuses on four key metrics, the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, unemployment expectations, and savings. 

• The EURJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 120.00 level, further losses towards 119.40 and 118.50 levels then remain possible.
• If the EURJPY pair trades above the 120.00 level, buyers are likely to test the 121.60 and 122.20 resistance levels.

Thursday 24th October, ECB Rate Decision

The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is made by the ECB Governing Council on whether to either increase, decrease or maintain interest rates. The key mechanism behind the monetary policy is the control of interest rates. After the ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced, the European Central Bank holds a lengthy monthly press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi delivering a prepared statement. 

• The EURUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.1110 level, key resistance is found at the 1.1220 and 1.1300 levels.
• If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1110 level, sellers may test towards the 1.1060 and 1.1000 levels.

Friday 25th October, German IFO Survey

The German IFO Survey is comprised of three components, the Current Assessment Survey, Business Climate Survey, and the Business Expectations Survey. The IFO Survey is a widely observed early indicator of the overall health of the economy. Traders and Investors pay close attention to the IFO Survey, as it can be a leading indicator for current and future trends developing in the German economy.

• The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9910 level, key support is found at the 0.9810 and 0.9680 levels.
• If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9910 level, buyers may test towards the 0.9950 and 0.9980 resistance levels.