Markets await FOMC rate decision and high impacting US macro data
During the upcoming trading week, the FOMC interest rate decision takes center stage, with market participants eager to hear Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest thoughts on the US economy and the direction of US interest rates. United States macroeconomic data is also heavily in focus this week, as we see the release of Core PCE, ISM Manufacturing and the Non-farm Payrolls job report for the month of March from the world’s largest economy.
We also see a key interest rate decision from the Bank of England this week and PMI Manufacturing data from the Chinese economy for the month of April. The release of eurozone Gross Domestic Product and CPI inflation data from the German economy is also in focus.
Monday 29th April, USD US Core PCE
The United States Core PCE Index report is greatly valued, mainly due to its capability of forecasting inflationary pressures inside the American economy. The Federal Reserve utilizes a measure of inflation resulting from personal core expenditure as their primary gauge of inflation. An overall increase in prices may be derived from an excess take in of these high levels of production and consumption.
- The EURUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.1216 level, key support is found at the 1.1110 and 1.1000 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1216 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.1260 and 1.1130 resistance levels.
Tuesday 30th April, CNY Chinese Manufacturing PMI
The Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is released by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. China’s Manufacturing PMI and is an economic indicator that measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector each month. The Chinese Manufacturing PMI for the month of April is expected to be stronger than the March figure, with a 51.0 reading.
- The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7060 level, further downside towards the 0.6930 and 0.6880 levels seems likely.
- If the AUDUSD pair trades above the 0.7060 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 0.7100 and 0.7150 resistance levels.
Wednesday 1st May, USD FOMC Rate Interest Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times per year to decide on United States monetary policy and where to set the nations interest rate. Rate changes impact interest rates for US consumer loans, bonds, mortgages and the US dollar exchange rate. The decision of the FOMC policy statement is usually very important, maybe more important than the actual interest rate move made by the central bank, due to it being highly anticipated by market participants. The policy statement includes hints for the future and contains the central bank’s collective outlook on the economy
- The USDJPY pair is bullish while trading above the 111.60 level, further gains towards 112.40 and 113.20 levels remain likely.
- If the USDJPY pair trades below the 111.60 level, sellers may test towards the 111.10 and 110.60 support levels.
Thursday 2nd May, GBP BOE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain the UK interest rates at 0.75 percent this week after the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union was delayed until October 31st. MPC policy members are also likely to acknowledge that UK economic data has recently improved, while also reiterating that the business climate inside the United Kingdom economy remains uncertain due to the unknown consequences of Brexit.
- The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading above the 1.2975 level, further downside towards 1.2865 and 1.2770 levels seems likely.
- If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.2975 level, buyers may test towards the 1.3000 and 1.3060 resistance levels.
Friday 3rd May, US Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report
The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of employment to the United States economy.
- The USDCAD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.3360 level, further upside towards the 1.3550 and 1.3750 levels remains possible.
- If the USDCAD pair trades below the 1.3360 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 1.3300 and 1.3260 support levels.