Markets look for direction from fed chair and trade negotiations
Testimony and trade
During the upcoming trading week traders and investors look to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testimony and US trade negotiations for direction. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economy and US monetary policy, markets will be focused on his latest thoughts on US interest rates. We also see the deadline for Sino-US trade talks expiring on Friday, with negotiators from Beijing and Washington hurrying to beat the deadline.
This week we also see the release of important Manufacturing data from the United States and the Chinese economy. We also see the release of key CPI inflation data from Canadian and eurozone economies and the release of US ISM manufacturing and US Core PCE data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Monday 25th February, EUR Italian GDP
Italian Gross Domestic Product measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Gross Domestic Product is seen as the primary indicator of a nations economic health and is closely watched by investors and market participants. The Italian economy shrank by 0.2 percent during the last quarter of 2018, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction, putting the Italian economy into a technical recession.
- The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1300 level, key support is found at the 1.1230 and 1.1180 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1370 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.1410 and 1.1450 resistance levels.
Tuesday 26th February, USD US Consumer Confidence
The US Consumer Confidence Index released by the US Conference Board measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The US Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence, making the Consumer Confidence Index a key barometer of the health of the overall United States economy from the perspective of the consumer.
- The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3000 level, key support is found at the 1.2940 and 1.2810 levels.
- If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3095, buyers may test the 1.3160 and 1.3200 resistance levels.
Wednesday 27th February, CAD Canadian CPI
The Canadian Consumer Price Index is released by Statistics Canada and measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is the most important indicator of inflation in Canada and is watched closely by the Bank of Canada. A strong or sustained rise of CPI inflation inside the Canadian economy can stimulate the central bank to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth.
- The USDCAD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.3240 level, further upside towards 1.3300 and 1.3380 levels would then seem possible.
- If the USDCAD pair trades below the 1.3240 level, sellers are likely to test the 1.3100 and 1.2990 support levels.
Thursday 28th February, USD Annualized GDP
United States GDP Annualized is released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and is based on quarterly economic data. US Gross Domestic Products is the market value of all final goods and services from a nation, usually calculated on an annual basis. Because most of the report components are known in advance, the United States GDP reports significance and ability to move markets has decreased.
- The USDCHF pair is bullish while trading above the 1.0050 level, further upside towards the 1.0100 and 1.0190 resistance levels seems possible.
- If the USDCHF pair trades below the 1.0100 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 0.9950 and 0.9910 support levels.
Friday 29th February, CNY Chinese Manufacturing PMI
The Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is released by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. China’s Manufacturing PMI and is an economic indicator that measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector each month. The Chinese Manufacturing PMI for the month of February is expected to be stronger than the January figure, but below the 50.0 reading needed for economic expansion.
- The AUDUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.7210 level, further downside towards the 0.7150 and 0.7080 levels seems likely.
- If the AUDUSD pair trades above the 0.7210 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 0.7340 and 0.7410 resistance levels.