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Nov 12, 2018

GDP AND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

GDP AND CPI

During the upcoming trading week, global inflation data and Gross Domestic Product is heavily in focus as we see the release of Consumer Price Index figures from the German, United Kingdom and US economy. We also see quarterly and annual Gross Domestic Product data Japanese and the eurozone economies.

This week we also see an important interest rate decision from the Indonesian central bank and Retail Sales data from Chinese, UK and the United States economy. The Australian economy will also release key monthly Jobs, Unemployment and Employment data.

Monday 12th November, JPY Japanese Machine Tool Orders

Machine Tool Orders is released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association and shows the monthly and annual movements in tool orders by Japanese manufacturers. Machine Tool Orders indicates business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Japanese economy. If Machine Tool Order data is better than expected, it is usually positive for the Japanese yen, while a negative or worse than expected figure is generally bearish for the Japanese yen.

  • The USDJPY pair is bullish trading above the 113.37 level, further upside towards 114.54 and 115.40 levels seems likely.
  • If the USDJPY pair moves below the 113.37 level, sellers may test towards the 112.90 and 111.60 support levels.

Tuesday 13th November, GBP UK Unemployment Rate

The United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is a figure released by the National Statistics and is calculated by dividing the number of out of work individuals in the labour force, by all individuals currently in the labour force. High unemployment generally indicates that an economy is unsatisfying or has a falling gross domestic product and low unemployment may reflect an expanding economy.

  • The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3000 level, key support is found at the 1.2866 and 1.2670 levels.
  • If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3100 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3170 and 1.3300 levels.

Wednesday 14th November, USD US Consumer Price Index

The US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power, although the Federal Reserve relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary means to determine whether inflation is occurring.

  • The USDCHF pair is bullish while trading above the 1.0010 level, key resistance is found at the 1.0090 and 1.0150 levels.
  • If the USDCHF pair moves below the 1.0010 level, sellers will likely test towards the 0.9950 and 0.9890 support levels.

Thursday 15th November, GBP UK Retail Sales

United Kingdom Retail Sales data is released by the National Statistics Institute and measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level over a stated period. This figure represents an indicator of consumer spending inside the United Kingdom economy. Higher retail sales volume generally shows stronger consumer demand, higher retail output, and economic growth in the United Kingdom economy.

  • The EURGBP pair is bearish while trading below the 0.8840 level, key support is found at the 0.8700 and 0.8620 levels.
  • If the EURGBP pair moves above the 0.8840 level, buyers will likely test towards the 0.8900 and 0.9000 resistance levels.

Friday 16th November, EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index

The eurozone Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the eurozone economies and also puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. CPI data may not affect the markets significantly because CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.1480 level, key resistance is found at the 1.1550 and 1.1630 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1300 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.1225 and 1.1180 support levels.
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