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Oct 1, 2018

GLOBAL MANUFACTURING DATA AND US PAYROLLS JOBS REPORT IN FOCUS

MANUFACTURING AND JOBS

During the upcoming trading week, traders look to a raft of manufacturing data from across the globe and the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls job report for the month of September. The American economy is expected to have created 188,000 new jobs last month, with Average Hourly Earnings moving higher and the official US Unemployment rate ticking down to 3.8%.

We also see a key interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week, with the RBA largely expected to keep rates on hold for a record twenty-fourth consecutive month. The Canadian economy also releases key Employment and Unemployment data, while the Indian economy will decide on where to set the nations interest rate on Thursday.

Monday October 1st, GBP UK Manufacturing PMI

The United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 53.8 during the month of September, which is a much-needed improvement on the weak August reading of 52.8. The UK Manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Respondents are surveyed for their views on a wide range of business conditions, including employment, new orders, prices, and inventories.

  • The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3100 level, key support is found at the 1.3000 and 1.2860 levels.
  • If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3120 level, buyers may test towards the 1.3144 and 1.3217 resistance levels.

Tuesday 2nd October, AUD RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the central monetary authority for the Australian economy and sets the nations interest rate and the overnight market funds rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged this month, maintaining the nations interest rate at a record low, 1.50 percent,  for a twenty-fourth consecutive month.

  • The AUDUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 0.7230 level, key support is found at the 0.7110 and 0.7000 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7230 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7280 and 0.7340 levels.

Wednesday 3rd October, USD PMI Manufacturing

The United States Purchase Manager Index Composite Reports on Manufacturing activity in the American economy and represents economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. PMI Manufacturing data provides advance insight into the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across key sectors.

  • The USDCAD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3123 level, further losses towards the 1.2800 and 1.2730 levels seems likely.
  • If the USDCAD pair moves above the 1.3123 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 1.3220 and 1.3310 resistance levels.

Thursday 4th October, INR RBI Rate Decision

India’s rate decision is made by members of the governing council of the Reserve Bank of Indian, who decide on where to set the nations interest rate. The RBI are widely expected to keep rates on hold this month, at a time when the Indian economy faces increasing challenges from rising oil prices and high inflation. The RBI Policy statement contains the Central Bank's collective perspective on the economy and also ideas about the likely path of future monetary policy.

  • The USDINR pair is bullish while trading above the 70.00 level, further upside towards the 73.20 and 74.00 resistance levels seems possible.
  • If the USDINR pair moves below the 70.00 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 69.20 and 68.50 support levels.

Friday 5th October, USD Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls are the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.

  • The USDJPY pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 112.20 level, further upside towards 114.00 and 114.44 levels remains possible.
  • If the USDJPY pair trades below the 112.20 level, sellers are likely to test the 111.70 and 111.37 support levels.
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