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Apr 2, 2018

U.S NONFARM PAYROLLS JOB REPORT TO SET THE WEEKLY TRADING TONE

U.S JOBS AND WAGES

The U.S Nonfarm payrolls job report for the month of March is set to headline the macroeconomic calendar this week, with economists expecting that the United States created 198,000 new jobs. Inside the jobs reports, the wage earnings data will also be a key factor for financial markets, as investors and the Federal Reserve look for continued signs of wage inflation in the American economy.

Aside from the U.S jobs report, we also see Retail Sales and Inflation data from the Eurozone, and monthly employment figures from the Canadian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia meet to decide on interest rates this week, and we also get monthly Manufacturing figures from China and the United States.

Monday 2nd April, Chinese PMI Manufacturing

The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index, released by Markit Economics, is a composite indicator that offers an overall view of the activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator for the whole economy. This month's Chinese PMI headline figure is expected to increase slightly from the previous month, with an expansionary reading of 51.7.

  • The NZDUSD pair remains bullish whilst trading above the 0.7200 level, further upside towards 0.7280 and 0.7350 cannot be ruled out.

  • If the NZDUSD pair moves below the 0.7200 level for a sustained period, sellers may test towards the 0.7180 and 0.7150 support levels.

Tuesday 4th April, AUD RBA Rate Decision

The RBA are expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1.50 percent, with Australian policy makers expected to remain cautious, with lingering domestic economic issues and the stronger Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision is the market interest rate on overnight funds, and stands as the central monetary authority for the Australian economy.

  • The AUDUSD pair remains bearish whilst trading below the 0.7712 level, further declines towards the 0.7660 and 0.7580 levels seem possible.

  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7712 level for a sustained period, a correction towards 0.7738 and 0.7780 remains possible.

Wednesday 4th April, Eurozone CPI Inflation

The Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat, measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the Euro Zone economies, and this may put pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. The data doesn't usually affect the markets significantly, because CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target.

  • The EURGBP pair retains a bearish bias whilst trading below the 0.8830 level, further losses towards the 0.8700 and 0.8635 levels may occur.

  • If the EURGBP pair moves above the 0.8830 level, further upside towards 0.8890 and 0.8958 remains possible.

Thursday 5th April, Eurozone Retail Sales

The Eurozone Retails Sales for the report measures the sum of goods and services sold monthly at retail outlets across the Eurozone trading block. The report acts as a measurement of consumption and consumer confidence for the whole of the European Union. Consumer confidence and economic growth signal an increasing number of sales which would fuel the Euro-zone economy, whilst higher consumption however, leads to inflationary pressures which may result in economic instability.

  • The EURUSD pair is bearish whilst trading below the 1.2382 level, further declines towards 1.2239 and 1.2160 remain possible.

  • If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.2382 level, further upside towards the 1.2430 and 1.2475 levels seems likely.

Friday 6th April, U.S Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The U.S Non-farm payrolls is the most carefully observed indicator of the employment situation for financial markets and the Federal Reserve. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation in the U.S, which in turn causes the Non-farm payrolls headline figure to become highly significant, due to the great importance of labor in the United States economy.

  • The USDJPY pair retains a bullish bias whilst trading above the 106.00 level, further upside towards 107.30 and 108.00 seems possible.

  • If the USDJPY pair declines below the 106.00 level, key technical support is currently located at the 105.50 and 105.24 levels.

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