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Mar 26, 2018

GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND INFLATION DATA BACK IN FOCUS

GDP AND INFLATION

During the upcoming trading week financial markets look to fourth fiscal quarter GDP releases from the United States, United Kingdom and Canadian economies. Inflation data also comes back into focus, as we see CPI data releases from the German and Japanese economies.

We also get a snapshot of inflation from the U.S economy, as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of domestic inflation, Core PCE, is revealed. Inflation remains a contentious issue for financial markets, with wage earnings and the consumer price index in the United States economy starting to increase.

Monday 26th March, U.S FED Mester Speech

FOMC voting member Loretta Mester delivers a scheduled speech on Monday, following the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates 0.25 basis point. Loretta Mester is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and former executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  • The USDJPY pair remains bearish whilst trading below the 106.00 level, further declines towards the 104.00 and 103.60 support levels appears possible.

  • A sustained move above the 106.00 level, should provoke further USDJPY buying towards the 10.61 and 107.20 levels.

Tuesday 27th March, U.S Consumer Confidence

U.S Consumer Confidence is forecasted to tick down to 126.6 during the month of March, falling from the 130.8 February figure. The headline figure helps measures the level of consumer confidence in U.S economic activity and measures overall consumer spending. The Consumer Confidence Index is considered a barometer of the health of the American economy from the perspective of the consumer.

  • The USDCHF pair remains bearish whilst trading below the 0.9520 level, further losses towards the 0.9410 and 0.9289 support levels may occur.

  • A sustained move above the 0.9520 level may lead to further upside gains towards the 0.9565 and 0.9650 levels.

Wednesday 28th March, U.S Q4 GDP

U.S fourth quarter GDP is expected to be revised higher to 2.60 percent, which is slightly higher than previous figure of 2.50 percent. U.S GDP is released by the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis and measures the changes in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product. The U.S GDP price index includes all products accounted for by U.S GDP and does not include the effects of changes in import prices.

  • The U.S dollar index remains bearish whilst trading below the 90.00 level, further losses towards the 88.90 and 88.00 levels remains possible.

  • A sustained move above the 90.00 level may lead to further buying in the U.S dollar index. Key technical resistance is currently found at the 90.38 and 91.20 levels.

Thursday 29th March, German CPI Inflation

The German economy releases the monthly and annual Consumer Price Index for the month of April, with most economist's expected German CPI to decline. The German CPI index measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by German consumers, and is calculated and published by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland. The Consumer Price Index represents the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.

  • The EURUSD pair remains bullish whilst trading above the 1.2285 level, further upside towards the 1.2430 and 1.2550 levels seems possible.

  • Should price-action on the EURUSD pair decline below the 1.2285 level, further losses towards the 1.2205 and 1.2160 levels seems likely.

Friday 30th March, Chinese Manufacturing PMI

Chinese Manufacturing is expected to have moved higher during the month of March, with the PMI survey moving to 51.2, which is better than 50.2 figure recorded for the month of February. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, is an economic indicator that measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector each month.

  • The AUDUSD pair remain bullish whilst trading above the 0.7712 level, further upside towards the 0.7810 and 0.7880 levels seems possible.

  • Should price-action decline below the 0.7712 level for a sustained basis, further losses towards the 0.7660 and 0.7580 level remains possible.

 

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