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Feb 19, 2018

CENTRAL BANKS MEETING MINUTES TO SET THE WEEKLY TRADING TONE

POLICY MEETING MINUTES

Central Bank policy makers will set the tone for financial market's during the upcoming trading week, as the Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve and European Central Bank all release their Policy Meeting Minutes. The U.S Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes will likely move the greenback, as the FED release clues about the timing for the next U.S interest rate hike.

We also see the release of key fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product figures from the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. Japan, Canada and the EU also release Consumer Price Inflation data for the month of January, while Germany and New Zealand reveal Producer Price Index numbers.

Monday 19th February, NZD Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. New Zealand's Producer Price Index provides information on the change in the general level of prices for the productive sector, and it is considered a leading indicator of consumer price inflation by economists.

  • The NZDUSD pair remains bullish while trading above the 0.7280 level, further upside towards 0.7400 and 0.7450 seems likely.
  • Should the NZDUSD pair decline below the 0.7280 level, further losses towards 0.7250 and 0.7212 remains possible.

Tuesday 20th February, AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are published two weeks after the Bank's interest rate decision, and provides a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. Generally speaking, if the RBA is seen as being hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is considered positive for the Australian dollar.

  • The AUDUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 0.8030 level, further gains towards 0.8110 and 0.8150 appears likely.
  • Should the AUDUSD pair decline below the 0.8030 level, we may see a decline towards the 0.7980 and 0.7930 levels.

Wednesday 21st February, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes provides insight into the monetary policy decision making process, and what the Federal Reserve thinks about economic developments inside and outside of the United States. The FOMC organize eight meetings in a year, and they give a clear guide to future U.S interest rate policy.

Thursday 22nd February, GBP UK Claimant Change

The UK Claimant Change is released by the National Statistics bureau and measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the United Kingdom, during the reported period. This figure is not an unemployment indicator, it simply measures the number of people claiming benefits, and provides an indication of the overall health of the UK employment sector.

  • The GBPUSD pair remains bullish while trading above the 1.3800 level, further gains towards 1.4155 and 1.4300 seem possible.
  • Should the GBPUSD pair decline below the 1.3800 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.3760 and 1.3658 levels.

Friday 23rd February, EU Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the eurozone economy and puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. A lower value of CPI may push the euro currency lower, as it can pressure the European Central Bank to keep monetary policy accommodative.

  • The EURUSD pair remains bullish while price-action trades above the 1.2275 level, further upside towards 1.2555 and 1.2610 seems likely.
  • Should the EURUSD pair decline below the 1.2275 level, sellers may push price-action towards the 1.2210 and 1.2150 levels.
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