US dollar steady ahead of initial jobless claims
The price of crude oil held steady even after a surprise increase of inventories last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the number of inventories in the country increased by more than 21.5 million last week. They had increased by more than 1.25 million barrels a week before. Analysts were expecting the inventories to fall by more than 928,000 barrels. Traders are also watching today’s OPEC+ meeting where members will deliberate on output. According to Reuters, some members have suggested leaving supplies at the current level until April.
The US dollar held steady against most currencies after mixed economic data from the United States. According to ADP, the US nonfarm employment change increased by 117,000 in February after rising by 195k in January. Analysts were expecting the inventories to increase by about 177k. Later today, the statistics agency will publish the latest jobless claims numbers. It will then release the nonfarm payroll data tomorrow. Yesterday, data by Markit showed that the country’s services PMI increased from 58.3 to 59.8. As a result, the composite PMI rose to 59.5.
The Australian dollar rose slightly in early trading after mixed economic data from the country. According to the statistics agency, the overall exports increased by 6% in January after increasing by 3% in the previous month. Imports declined by 2% pushing the trade surplus to more than A$10.14 billion. Further data revealed that retail sales increased to 0.5%. Other important numbers to watch today will be the UK construction PMI, EU retail sales, and US factory order numbers.
The XBR/USD rose from yesterday’s low of 62.16 to 64.62 even after the increase of US inventories. On the four-hour chart, the price has moved above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. It is also slightly below the ascending yellow trendline. Also, the money flow index has risen from the oversold level of 6 to the current 45. While the pair may continue rising, there is a possibility of high volatility as the OPEC+ meeting goes on.
The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.2052 in the overnight session. On the 1H chart, the pair has moved below the 15-period and 25-period exponential moving averages (EMA). It is also slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level while the signal and histogram of the MACD are below the neutral level. The pair has formed a small double bottom pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely rise today as bulls target the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2085.
The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7790 after the Australian trade numbers. On the hourly chart, the pair moved slightly above the lower line of the ascending channel. It is at the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. Further, it is forming a head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, the pair may continue rising and then have a bearish pullback.