US dollar index rally continues as potential risks rise
The price of crude oil declined in early trading as investors continued to worry about the reported number of coronavirus cases in China and Europe. In China, the government has announced a new lockdown in Hebei, a province that borders Shanghai to slow down the spread. Similarly, in Europe, countries like the UK and Spain have continued to report more new cases. The price is also falling due to the strong US. dollar.
The US dollar index continued to rally in the overnight session as global risks rose. The biggest risk is on the new strain of the virus that is spreading in many countries. There are concerns that countries are not vaccinating faster enough. Another risk is about the American political situation where Trump is under pressure to resign a week before his tenure ends. He has been blamed for last week's attack in Washington. The dollar is also rising because of the anticipated interest rate hikes should Democrats provide the $3 trillion stimulus package.
The economic calendar will be relatively muted today, with no major scheduled events. The only major data will be the short-term oil outlook by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This data will provide more details about the demand and supply dynamics in the oil market. There will also be speeches by several Fed officials like Raphael Bostic and Richard Kaplan.
The EUR/USD pair is little changed today after the 0.60% rally yesterday. It is trading at 1.2145, which is slightly below the short and long-term moving averages on the four-hour chart. It is also below the two lines of the envelope indicator. Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and Stochastics have also continued to fall. The price is also slightly lower than the important support at 1.2200. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling today, with the next target being yesterday's low at 1.2130.
The AUD/USD pair dropped to an intraday low of 0.7665, which is the lowest it has been since Friday. On the hourly chart, this price is below the 25-day and 15- day exponential moving averages. It has also formed a bearish pennant pattern that’s shown in orange. Also, the price is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level while the MACD line and the histogram is below the neutral level. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as traders target the next support at 0.7600.
The XBR/USD pair is hovering near the highest point since March last year. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly above the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages. Also, the Relative Strength Index has been rising while the signal and histogram of the MACD is above the neutral line. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising in the near term as bulls aim for the resistance at $60.