US dollar sinks as US election results stream-in
The US dollar is up sharply as the market reacts to the streaming results from the United States. The dollar index is up by more than 0.90%, which is a sign that the market is getting cautious over the results. Similarly, equities have erased some of yesterday’s gains, with the Dow Jones futures down by 100 points. As of this writing, Joe Biden has won 131 votes while Donald Trump has won 91. However, with most states yet to announce their results, there is a possibility that the lead could change. While the focus will remain on elections, the dollar will also react to the ADP nonfarm employment change and US trade numbers.
The New Zealand dollar is up against the Australian dollar as traders react to the country’s employment numbers. According to the statistics office, New Zealand’s unemployment rate jumped from 4.0% in the second quarter to 5.3%. Similarly, the participation rate rose from 69.70% to 70.10% while the labour cost index rose by an annualised rate of 1.6%. These numbers were all better than analysts were expecting. They are also better than New Zealand’s peer countries. For example, while its unemployment rate is 5.3%, that of the United States is more than 7%.
The Australian dollar has dropped against the US dollar as traders react to the US election. Traders are also reacting to the country’s retail sales numbers. Data from the country’s statistics office showed that retail sales fell by 1.1% in September, which was an improvement from the previous month’s decline of 4.0%. The sales rose by 6.5% in the third quarter. These numbers came a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered its interest rate decision. Meanwhile, the focus among traders will be on global services PMI numbers and crude oil inventories.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair rose to a high of 1.1771, the highest it has been since October 28. That price was slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Overnight, the pair erased these gains as it fell to a low of 1.1600. On the hourly chart, it has moved below the moving averages while the average true range (ATR) has jumped to the highest level in months. That is a sign of increased volatility, which will continue today as the final tally is released. The key levels to watch will be yesterday’s high of 1.1771 and 1.1550.
Like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD rose to a high of 1.3140 yesterday. Today, it has erased those gains and is trading at 1.2984. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly above the upper line of the previous channel shown in pink. It is also along the 25-day moving average while the awesome has moved above the neutral line. The average true range has also risen, which is a sign that volatility will remain throughout the day.
The USD/JPY rose to an intraday high of 105.33, which is the highest it has been since October 29. On the hourly chart, this price is above the 25-day and 15-day simple moving averages. It is also above the previous resistance level at 105.00. Oscillators, including the force index and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have also shot up. Like the two other pairs, we expect volatility as the results come in.