Asian stocks and oil price rises on economic rebound optimism
Asian stocks rose as traders continued to bet on an economic rebound even as coronavirus cases in the United States continued to rise. In China, the main indices rose by more than 3% while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng is up by 2.9%. In Japan, the Nikkei is up by more than 1.4%. According to the Financial Times, one reason for the upbeat performance is that Chinese retail traders were piling into technology and internet stocks as they bet on economic recovery. Meanwhile, business confidence stabilized in Hong Kong in June as the city started to reopen. The confidence rose to 49.6, its highest level since April 2018.
The US dollar eased slightly as traders reflected on the coronavirus situation in the US. According to health officials, the country reported more than 42,551 cases yesterday. That was the largest number of new infections reported on a Sunday. That followed 52,000 cases reported on Sunday. Still, the actual number could be higher since most states reduced testing during the July 4 holiday weekend. For example, states like Connecticut, Kentucky, and Kansas did not report any data.
The economic data will be relatively light today. The key numbers to watch will be the Eurozone retail sales numbers, UK construction PMI, German factory orders, US non-manufacturing PMI data, and business outlook survey by the Bank of Canada. Analysts expect that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI will rise from the previous 45.4 to 50.0. They also see the US services PMI data by Markit rising from the previous 37.5 to 46.7. In the UK, analysts polled by Reuters expect the construction PMI to rise from the previous 28.9 to 47.0.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1280. On the four-hour chart, this price is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. It is also slightly above the upper line of the triangle pattern that has been forming in the past few weeks. This move, however, is not supported by higher volume, which means that a real break out has not happened. Still, the pair is likely to continue rising as bulls target the important resistance at 1.1300.
The XBR/USD is trading at 43.00, up slightly from Friday’s close. On the four-hour chart, the price is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages and the ascending white trend line. The RSI has been rising and is currently close to the overbought level of 70. Also, the main and signal line of the MACD has been rising. Therefore, the likely scenario is where the pair continues to rise as bulls attempt to test the important resistance at $43.93.
The NZD/USD pair rose to an intraday high of 0.6551, which is the highest it has been since June 10. On the four-hour chart, the price is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. It is also slightly above the important resistance at 0.6533. The RSI has also been rising to the current level of 70. Therefore, the pair is likely to continue rising as bulls target the next resistance at 0.6585.