Sterling soars as polls signal landslide Conservatives win
The US dollar weakened after disappointing employment data. Data from ADP showed that companies added the fewest workers to their payrolls in six months. Companies added just 67k jobs in November, which is the second-lowest since 2010. This data missed the median estimate of a 135k gain. ADP also revised downward October’s payrolls to 121k. Still, the official employment data that will be released tomorrow could differ from the official jobs data. On Monday, the ISM data showed that manufacturing activity slowed in November. Yesterday, data from ISM showed that non-manufacturing PMI weakened from 54.7 to 53.9.
The Australian dollar declined slightly after more bad news from the country. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that retail turnover was relatively unchanged in October. This followed a 0.2% increase in September. On trade, the country’s trade surplus declined from $7.18 billion to $4.50 billion. This was after exports remained unchanged in the month after growing by 3%. Exports declined by 5% after rising by 3% in the previous month. These numbers came two days after the RBA left rates unchanged and a day after the country reported weak GDP growth.
The market will focus on a number of important things today. Firstly, they will focus on crude oil as OPEC+ members meet in Vienna. Early reports show that Saudi Arabia will press for more supply cuts, which could boost oil prices. Yesterday, data from the US showed that inventories declined by more than 4.85 million barrels. The market will also receive the preliminary GDP data from the European Union. The market expects this data to remain unchanged from November’s 1.2%. The market will also receive the Ivey PMI data from Canada. This data will come a day after the BoC left rates unchanged yesterday. Important corporate earnings will also be received. The companies to watch will be Tiffany, Zumiez, Signet Jewellers, Fastenal, Express, and SecureWorks.
The EUR/USD pair rose sharply yesterday after the ADP jobs data. It reached a high of 1.1115 and then pared back these gains. It is now trading at 1.1085. The price is along the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The ATR has declined slightly while the price remains slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair may remain along this channel as the market waits for the official jobs data.
Sterling continued to soar as the market continued to react to new opinion polls that predicted a landslide Conservative win. Sterling reached a high of 1.3117, which was the highest level it has been in two-and-a-half years. The pair is trading above all the short, long, and medium-term moving averages on the hourly chart. The price is above the overbought level while the momentum indicator has started declining. This is an indication that a reversal is still possible.
The AUD/USD pair declined yesterday to a low of 0.6837. This was lower than yesterday’s high of 0.6855. The price is slightly below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages on the hourly chart. The price is slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands while the RSI has been falling. The average true range has been declining too. The pair may continue to decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at 0.6815.