GEAR UP FOR A SUPER FRIDAY
The final trading session of June is expected to be an eventful one, as a deluge of economic data from Europe and the United States floods the market. There’s also no shortage of high-profile releases, which should give currency traders plenty of opportunities.
Action begins at 06:00 GMT when Germany unveils its latest retail sales figures. Receipts at retail stores are projected to fall 0.5% in May. Compared with May 2017, retail sales likely rose 1.8%.
The French government will report on inflation and consumer spending at 06:45 GMT. The headline consumer spending report is likely to show growth of 0.8% for May.
Germany is back in the headlines at 08:00 GMT with the monthly unemployment report. The jobless rate for Europe’s largest economy is forecast to hold at 5.2% for June.
Shifting gears to the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release revised first quarter GDP data at 08:30 GMT. Annualised GDP is projected to grow 1.2%, unchanged from the previous estimate.
Eurostat rounds out an active European session with a final reading of June CPI at 09:00 GMT. The Eurozone inflation rate is forecast to rise 2% annually.
The New York session begins with a high-profile report on personal income and outlays, which also includes the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The core PCE index likely rose 1.9% in the 12 months through May, up slightly from the previous month.
Analysts are also forecasting a 0.4% rise both in personal spending and personal income.
At 13:45 GMT, the ISM-Chicago will release the latest Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which is expected to convey a slowdown in growth during June.
Canada will also be in the headlines Friday when it posts April GDP figures at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is projected to flatline at the start of Q2.
After undergoing a failed recovery on Tuesday, Europe’s common currency has declined by more than 130 pips against the dollar. EUR/USD is now trading at 1.1573, with immediate support located at 1.1550. On the flipside, resistance is found at 1.1620.
Cable’s week-long downtrend showed signs of moderation on Thursday, though the underlying trend remains firmly tilted to the downside. GBP/USD has found support away from the recent swing low of 1.3063, with prices now testing the 1.3100 level. Economic data could set the tone on Friday.
The Canadian dollar rebounded on Thursday after falling to its lowest level of the year mid-week. USD/CAD is currently trading around 1.3260, having declined more than 100 pips from its previous high. The short-term outlook is still pointed upward, as NAFTA talks continue to weigh on the loonie.