UK DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT
The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will dominate the headlines on Monday with reports on factory output and trade. Currency traders will also be on high alert for geopolitics after US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un arrived in Singapore over the weekend.
In terms of economic data, the Italian government will kick off the European session with a report on industrial production at 08:00 GMT. Thirty minutes later, the UK government will release the entirety of its data flows for the session.
Industrial production, manufacturing production and the trade balance will all be released at 08:30 GMT. The UK’s industrial production index is forecast to grow 0.2% in April, which translates into an annualized growth rate of 2.7%. Manufacturing output is projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% annually.
On the trade front, London’s goods deficit likely narrowed to £-11.25 billion in April from £-12.3 billion in March.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is also scheduled to release its latest estimate of UK GDP. The report, which is released monthly, measures GDP output on a three-month basis.
Earlier in the day, China reported a sharp acceleration in producer inflation for the month of May. The producer price index (PPI) jumped 4.1% annually, compared with 3.4% in April. Analysts had forecast a reading of 3.8%.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) held steady at 1.8% in May.
Monetary policy will dominate the headlines on Tuesday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting in Washington. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2%.
Europe’s common currency is fresh off its best week since February, as the dollar bulls continued to retreat. EUR/USD peaked around 1.1840 last Thursday before a 100-pip correction dragged prices back down to the low 1.7730 range. At the time of writing, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1782, having gained 0.1% from the previous close. The pair faces strong resistance at last Thursday’s high. Meanwhile, immediate support is located at 1.1725.
Cable’s recovery stalled on Friday as investors turned their attention to the G7 Summit in Quebec. Prices have rallied back above 1.3400 but momentum has slowed significantly. GBP/USD is likely to run into resistance near 1.3469, the high from 7 June. On the opposite side of the ledger, immediate support is located at 1.3395.
The Australian dollar was little changed on Monday as traders continued to assess Chinese inflation figures. AUD/USD continues to hover around 0.7600. Prices swung as high as 0.7678 last week before reversing all the way back down to 0.7664. The short-term outlook remains guided by monetary policy.