NORTH AMERICAN TRADE IN FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY
From a calendar perspective, US and Canadian trade data are the focal point of Wednesday’s session. Both countries are scheduled to report on their international trade balance at the start of North American trade. Very few data headlines are expected before then.
The European session begins with a speech from a top central banker at 06:30 GMT. European Central Bank (ECB) official Peter Praet will deliver remarks that will be closely monitored by the financial markets.
About 30-minutes later, the Spanish government will report on industrial output for the month of April. Production is forecast to grow 0.3% month-on-month, which translates into an annualized rate of 5%>
At 07:15 GMT, Switzerland will release the latest edition of its consumer price index (CPI). The May reading is expected to come in at 0.3%, leading to a year-over-year growth rate of 0.9%.
Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Silvana Tenreyro is scheduled to deliver a speech at 10:40 GMT. Tenreyro has served as a tenured professor at the London School of Economics.
Shifting gears to North America, both the United States and Canada will unveil their trade numbers at 12:30 GMT. The US Commerce Department is forecast to show a deficit of $49 billion for April. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada will likely show a deficit of around $3.4 billion, smaller than the $4.14 billion shortfall during March.
Commodity traders will be keeping a close eye on weekly crude inventory data courtesy of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA will likely show a drawdown of 2.5 million barrels for the week ended 1 June, compared with a 3.62 million-barrel drawdown the week before.
Australia’s currency dipped on Tuesday after the central bank voted to keep interest rates on hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the benchmark rate at a record low of 1.5% for 20 straight months. AUD/USD bottomed at 0.7601 but has since rebounded to trade in the 0.7625-0.7630 region. The pair faces interim support at the 50-day simple moving average, which is currently at 0.7605.
Europe’s common currency underwent a series of volatile moves on Tuesday, with prices bottoming in the low 1.1660 region. Prices then immediately bounced back toward the 1.1730 handle, where they are now trading. EUR/USD is currently testing the 1.1730 resistance level and a clean break is needed to drive prices back toward 1.1770 and eventually 1.1800.
Cable is back on the offensive this week, with prices overtaking the 1.3400 handle for the first time in roughly two weeks. GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3410, with the bulls taking aim at the 1.3460 handle. However, to cross that level, they need to put some distance behind the 20-day moving average, which is in the low 1.3400 region.