ECONOMIC DATA, POWELL SPEECH TO DRIVE HEADLINES TUESDAY
A combination of economic data and monetary policy speculation will dictate market action on Tuesday.
The economic data wire begins in Europe at 05:45 with a report on Swiss unemployment. Switzerland’s jobless rate is projected to hold steady at 2.9% in April.
German industrial production will make headlines at 06:00 GMT. Output at German factories is forecast to rise 0.8% in March, translating into an annualized growth rate of 3%.
The German government will also report on the national trade balance at 06:00 GMT. Berlin’s monthly trade surplus is forecast to expand to €27 billion in March from €20.7 billion in February. In seasonally adjusted terms, the surplus likely expanded by €800 million to €20 billion.
Exports are projected to rise 1.8% month on month. Imports are forecast to grow.
Shifting gears to North America, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech at 07:15 GMT. The Fed chief led the central bank in holding interest rates steady last week. Policymakers are expected to continue raising interest rates when they meet in June.
In terms of economic data, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly report on US crude inventories. Official inventory data courtesy of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) are due the following morning.
US oil prices surged on Monday to their highest level in three-and-a-half years. There’s reason to believe that crude prices will continue trekking higher in the short term as OPEC supports sustained output cuts through 2018.
Europe’s common currency edged higher at the beginning of the week but failed to sustain a consistent rally. As a result, EUR/USD settled around 1.920, where the pair was last seen trading. EUR/USD has established a bottom near 1.1900, with prices bottoming out of the hole early on Monday. However, the overall trend remains firmly bearish with the US dollar aiming higher.
Cable resumed its tepid recovery on Monday, as prices continued above 1.3570. However, the upside remains limited by a strengthening US dollar. GBP/USD faces immediate support at 1.3510. On the opposite side of the ledger, resistance is seen at 1.3610. The pair could experience narrower trading ranges ahead of the Bank of England policy decision due on Thursday.
The USD/JPY continued lower at the beginning of the week, with prices edging below 109.00. At the time of writing, the pair was trading at 108.98, where it was little changed compared with the previous close. Immediate support is located near 108.50, which corresponds with the 24 April swing low. On the flipside, immediate resistance is located near 109.40. Demand for USD/JPY is intricately tied to risk sentiment in the broader financial markets.