PMI TAKES THE SPOTLIGHT ON MONDAY
Economic data is in the spotlight again on Monday, with PMI reports from Europe and the United States set to generate significant headlines for currency traders. The reports on manufacturing and services will kick off what’s expected to be a highly active week in the markets.
The first PMI report of the day will be released at 07:00 GMT courtesy of Markit. The French manufacturing, services and Composite PMI indicators are due at that time. Composite PMI essentially reflects the combined services and manufacturing components of the monthly survey.
PMI data for Germany is scheduled for release at 07:30 GMT. The Composite indicator is forecast to ease to 57.6 in April from 58.2 the previous month.
A report on the Eurozone’s Composite PMI is scheduled to come in at 08:00 GMT. The April reading is expected to come in at 54.2, down from 55.2 in March.
Shifting gears to the United States, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank will release its National Activity Index at 12:30 GMT. The monthly indicator for March is expected to come in at 0.41, which is less than half of the February reading.
At 13:45 GMT, Markit will release three PMI indicators for the United States covering services, manufacturing and the broader economy (Composite). The Composite indicator is projected to strengthen to 55.3 from 54.2 the previous month.
US housing data will also make headlines Monday when the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports on existing home sales. March sales are forecast to rise 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted 5.55 million. That follows a gain of 3% the month before.
North of the border, the Canadian government will report on wholesale sales at 12:30 GMT, although the report isn’t expected to generate much headlines.
Europe’s common currency continued lower on Monday, with prices falling to the low 1.2270 US range. EUR/USD has been in decline since Wednesday; over that period, the exchange rate has dropped more than 100 pips. The currency pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2300. On the opposite side of the spectrum, support is located at 1.2260.
The British pound was holding steady at the start of Monday trading after plunging nearly 350 pips from the 17 April high. Cable is now trading in the low-1.4000 range, where prices were holding just below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA). Immediate support is located at the 5 April swing low of 1.3965.
A surge in crude prices last week failed to lift the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD making another run toward 1.2800. The pair was last seen trading at 1.2764. Economic data is in focus this week, with stronger than expected US results set to drive the pair higher.