US RETAIL SALES HEADLINE MONDAY SESSION
The global financial markets have a lot to ponder on Monday: Syrian airstrikes, corporate earnings and a few high-profile data releases from the world’s largest economy.
After a quiet European session, trading in North America opens with the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index. The monthly release, which is scheduled for 12:30 GMT, gauges business conditions in one of America’s most populous states. The April edition of the index is expected to show weakness to 20.1 from 22.5 in March. Nevertheless, a positive figure is normally considered bullish.
The Commerce Department will also report on retail sales at 12:30 GMT. The monthly report is widely considered to be one of the best gauges of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic output. Receipts at retail stores are forecast to rise 0.3% in March after falling 0.1% the month before. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales category likely rose 0.3%.
Sales are down in each of the last three months, capping off the worst stretch in over five years. Some analysts have expressed concerns over the health of the US economy as a result.
Commerce economists will also report on business inventories at 14:00 GMT. The monthly data set, which has direct implications on gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to show an increase of 0.5% for February.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will deliver its latest housing market index at 14:00 GMT. The gauge of homebuilder confidence is projected to hold at 70 for April.
In terms of monetary policy, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Raphael Bostic will deliver a speech at 17:15 GMT. Bostic was a member of the policy-setting committee that voted to raise interest rates last month. At least two more upward adjustments are expected this year.
EUR/USD edged slightly higher on Monday, as the pair continued to recover from last Thursday’s swing low near 1.2300. The pair was last seen trading at 1.2336, having gained 0.1% from the previous close. EUR/USD faces interim support at 1.2290 and resistance up at 1.2370.
Cable’s bullish upside faded on Friday, as the British pound fell from highs near 1.4300 US. However, the currency remains in a firm uptrend now that Brexit talks are mobilizing. GBP/USD was last seen trading at 1.4248. It faces immediate resistance at the 1.4300 psychological hurdle.
The Japanese yen has been caught in a firm downtrend stretching back three weeks even as the dollar struggled to make gains against other currencies. USD/JPY rose 0.1% on Monday to 107.42. The pair is testing the 13 April high of 107.70. Immediate support is likely found at the 11 April swing low of 106.78.