EUROPEAN DATA, CENTRAL BANKERS ON DECK FOR TUESDAY
The data deluge continues on Tuesday, with European releases dominating the headlines amid a quiet session for North America. On the monetary policy front, a pair of central bankers will capture the market’s attention ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement later in the week.
The economic calendar heats up at 08:00 GMT with a report on Spanish Q4 GDP. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, which translates into an annualized gain of 3.1%.
Two hours later, the European Commission will release preliminary Eurozone GDP data. The 19-member euro area is forecast to grow 0.6% in the fourth quarter and 2.6% annually. Both readings match the previous quarter’s gain.
The European Commission will also release several sentiment indicators, including services sentiment, consumer confidence, industrial confidence, business climate and economic sentiment.
Meanwhile, Germany is schedule to report on inflation at 13:00 GMT. The consumer price index (CPI) for Europe’s largest economy is projected to rise 1.7% annually in January. The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), which calculates inflation using a method consistent with the European Union, is forecast to rise 1.6% year-over-year.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to deliver a speech at 15:30 GMT. Just one hour later, European Central Bank (ECB) official Yves Mersch will deliver public commentary.
The Federal Reserve will kick off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled to deliver its rate statement the following afternoon. The US central bank is widely expected to stand pat at the forthcoming meeting.
In commodity news, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil stock report at 21:30 GMT. The official inventory report courtesy of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due the following morning.
Europe’s common currency moderated on Monday following another week of huge gains. The EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.2371, where it was down 0.1% from the previous close. The pair faces immediate support near the 10-day SMA around 1.2300. On the upside, resistance is likely found around 1.2430.
Like the euro, cable backtracked on Monday, but remained in a firm uptrend. The GBP/USD continued lower at the start of European trade, falling 0.2% to 1.4045. The pound’s near-term outlook will be dominated by ongoing developments concerning Brexit, which the market appears to have shrugged off recently.
The US dollar bounced back against its northern counterpart on Monday, with the USD/CAD climbing toward the 1.2350 handle. The latest uptick suggests that the Bank of Canada’s latest rate hike may have already been priced into the market. That being said, investors can expect further vulnerability for the greenback in the short term.